Retail Sales Analysis: February 2026

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, then in its fifth week, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway carrying 20% of the world's oil supply — pushing oil prices past $100 a barrel, up sharply from around $60 before the conflict began.

Sales grew 3.7% year-over-year, or 4.1% excluding auto and gas. Sporting goods, hobby, and book stores surged 11.3% annually, while miscellaneous retail rose 10.2%. Furniture & home and department stores were the laggards, down 5.6% and 5.4%.

Consumer pessimism is growing as the war threatens to push inflation higher and weaken economic growth, a risk RetailStat expects will only intensify the longer the conflict persists, given the disruption to oil and key commodities like fertilizer ingredients.

Furniture & home and food & beverage/grocery were the notable weak spots, each falling 1% month-over-month, even as most other categories posted gains.